Biden in the Vise Between Right and Left Populism in Foreign Policy

 

Biden in the Vise Between Right and Left Populism in Foreign Policy

As we head toward the 2024 presidential elections foreign policy has become a key area where Biden and Democratic Party establishment will be tested by populist forces on the right and left.

 

From the right in 2022 governors Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida were prominent among who began piling asylum seeking immigrants onto busses and planes and dumping them in blue states that were less restrictionist in their outlook toward immigrants. Led by New York City mayor Eric Adams, the former New York cop, blue states began to call on federal support to serve their swelled asylum-seeking populations, and institute stricter border enforcement polices as well.  

 

By last September even the likes of left populist firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were being heckled by protesters seeking answers to the influx of immigrants overwhelming New York City's social services.[1] Red state Republican governors had cleverly elevated immigration to a leading national issue.

 

Governor Abbott has mobilized the Texas National guard to take charge of the border, usurping and replacing the US Border Patrol in the process. This is a blatant affront to federal authority. But rather than a standoff at the border that might result in an armed clash, the feds relented, and the Texas National Guard currently patrols the border. Abbott has announced that the state plans to build a military base at Eagle Pass, a major place where illegal crossings have occurred recently.

 

Abbott has boldly undermined federal authority saying that the Biden administration is failing to uphold immigration law. But court decisions all the way up to the Supreme Court have consistently ruled that the federal government has sole jurisdiction over immigration enforcement. So the Abbott administration is also breaking the law!

 

Abbott is demonstrating classic populist impatience and willingness to blow up the system when they don’t like the way things are going. Lurking beneath the surface of course, is the the right populist fear of the “browning of America” that will make white Americans a minority by mid-century.

 

Abbott has allies in the US Congress where their populist refusal to compromise, be pragmatic and legislate precipitated crisis for policy in Ukraine and Israel as well as the border. After war exploded in israel-Palestine from October 7, and military aid for Ukraine was set to expire, House Republicans sought to tie those two issues to border policy in one “national security” bill. The populist House Group of 20/Tea Party faction behind Speaker Mike Johnson thought that divisions between the two parties over border policy and divisions among the Democrats over Israel-Gaza would make passing a bill impossible.

 

That position threatened to undo the entire system of international security established after World War Two. In the case of Ukraine failure to prevent Russia from steamrolling it would recall the horrors of the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars of the 20th Century. In the Middle East lack of support for Israel might undermine the West’s most reliable ally in the region and risk a wider regional war. Regarding the border, they figured even Senate Republicans could never agree on a deal with Democrats that gave enough to both sides.[2]

 

But in early February when Senate Republicans led by James Langford (Oklahoma) brokered a deal with Democrats including all three issues, Trump and the Group of 20 were stunned. Herr Trump instructed his minions in Congress to oppose the package arguing it was still a bad bill. In short order Mike Johnson announced that the bi-partisan bill would be dead on arrival at the House. Then Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who’d worked hard to craft the bill, announced that he didn’t have enough votes to prevent a Republican filibuster.[3]

 

The legislation offered more restriction and control at the border than ever before, but Democrats have since been shouting to the high heavens that Trump wants to demonstrate that Biden can’t get anything done on the issue so he can use it to energize his white nationalist base in November.[4]

 

It’s bad enough that Republicans are willing to stall pragmatic border policy reform, but they’re simultaneously willing to risk continuing Russan aggression across the vast European plain that has witnessed the bloodiest wars in history. In the Middle East the Republican willingness to let aid to Israel lapse is hard to understand, though the Christian fundamentalists among them are likely secretly salivating, because the whole mess over there could signal that the War of Armageddon imminent!

While Biden’s foreign policy is teetering under pressure from the far right, in the Middle East he is also being pressured from his left anti-imperialist populist base in the Democratic Party. The Hamas attacks on people reveling at a concert on October 7 was a monstrous crime against humanity. However, the Israeli military campaign to “eliminate Hamas” defies the laws of just war and what is considered a proportionate response.

By December 60 Congressional Democrats were calling for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all Israeli hostages and Palestinians arbitrarily detained by Israel.

 

As the presidential primary season unfolded the Michigan contest offered an early challenge to Biden’s Middle East policy. The state is home to the largest Arab American population, by sheer numbers and more importantly, by percentage of state population, in the country. Biden won Michigan by only 154,000 votes in 2020. Some observers estimated that the Arab and larger Muslim vote may have brought him the margin for victory.[5] Before the Michigan primary Rashida Tlaib, the Palestinian American congresswoman from Dearborn led the movement urging Michigan Democrats to vote uncommitted in the primary to send a message to Biden regarding his Gaza policy.

 

In the February 27 primary over 100,00 voters totaling 13.2% of the vote went for uncommitted. This campaign reportedly tapped young voters and voters of color who are more likely to disapprove of Biden’s Gaza policy, while young voters are also troubled by his age. On March 5 Democratic primaries (Super Tuesday) uncommitted garnered 18.9% in Minnesota, 12,7% in North Carolina, 8.1% in Colorado and 7.9% in Tennessee. And in my home state of Washington activists early estimates were showing over 7% of Democratic primary votes going uncommitted.

 

It's hard to know what these alienated voters will do in November, but the answer to that question keeps the Democratic establishment up at night. Would Arab and other

Muslim voters, and young voters, populations without as much experience with politics

in America’s formal processes actually risk not voting in November and handing the election to the neo-fascist Trump? Surely, they must know that in a second Trump term the fate of Palestinians in the occupied territories as well as Arabs, Muslims, immigrants and brown people in the US will be much worse than if Biden were re-elected. Likewise, can the young, who all the data shows trend left, think another Trump term will favor them?

 

Would brown immigrants, POC in general and the young rather blow things up in exasperation or are they just playing a shrewd hand in the war of position inside the Democratic Party to leverage their steadily growing power. These demographics might well vote for Biden in November and come out of the election with yet more power in ways reflecting their growing percentages in the population. And between now and November,

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[1] Greg Norman, ”AOC other Dems drowned out by screaming protesters at NYC migrant crisis news conference,” Fox News Channel, September 15, 2023.  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aoc-other-democrats-drowned-out-screaming-protesters-nyc-migrant-crisis-news-conference

 

[2] Associated Press, “Republicans Want to Pair Border Security with Aid to Ukraine. Here’s Why That Makes a Deal So Tough,” US News and World Report, November 26, 2023. https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2023-11-26/republicans-want-to-pair-border-security-with-aid-for-ukraine-heres-why-that-makes-a-deal-so-tough

 

[3] Sahil Kapur, Kate Santaliz, Frank Thorp V and Julie Tsirikin, “Senate Republicans knife bipartisan border security bill, declaring it dead,” NBC NEWS, February 6, 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-republicans-knife-bipartisan-border-security-bill-declaring-dea-rcna137572

 

[4]  Julia Mueller, “Harris: House Republicans don’t want immigration fix, because  they want a political issue to run on in November,” THE HILL, January 24, 2024.  https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4427270-harris-house-gop-immigration-border-security-november/

 

[5]  Ali Harb, “How Arabs and Muslims helped Biden win Michigan and the White House, “  Middle East Eye, November 10, 2020. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/how-arabs-and-muslims-helped-biden-win-michigan-and-white-house