Biden in the Vise Between Right and
Left Populism in Foreign Policy
As we head toward the 2024
presidential elections foreign policy has become a key area where Biden and
Democratic Party establishment will be tested by populist forces on the right
and left.
From the right in 2022 governors
Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida were prominent among who began
piling asylum seeking immigrants onto busses and planes and dumping them in
blue states that were less restrictionist in their outlook toward immigrants. Led
by New York City mayor Eric Adams, the former New York cop, blue states began
to call on federal support to serve their swelled asylum-seeking populations,
and institute stricter border enforcement polices as well.
By last September even the
likes of left populist firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were being heckled by
protesters seeking answers to the influx of immigrants overwhelming New York
City's social services. Red
state Republican governors had cleverly elevated immigration to a leading national
issue.
Governor Abbott has
mobilized the Texas National guard to take charge of the border, usurping and replacing
the US Border Patrol in the process. This is a blatant affront to federal
authority. But rather than a standoff at the border that might result in an
armed clash, the feds relented, and the Texas National Guard currently patrols
the border. Abbott has announced that the state plans to build a military base
at Eagle Pass, a major place where illegal crossings have occurred recently.
Abbott has boldly
undermined federal authority saying that the Biden administration is failing to
uphold immigration law. But court decisions all the way up to the Supreme Court
have consistently ruled that the federal government has sole jurisdiction over
immigration enforcement. So the Abbott administration is also breaking the law!
Abbott is demonstrating
classic populist impatience and willingness to blow up the system when they
don’t like the way things are going. Lurking beneath the surface of course, is
the the right populist fear of the “browning of America” that will make white
Americans a minority by mid-century.
Abbott has allies in the
US Congress where their populist refusal to compromise, be pragmatic and
legislate precipitated crisis for policy in Ukraine and Israel as well as the
border. After war exploded in israel-Palestine from October 7, and military aid
for Ukraine was set to expire, House Republicans sought to tie those two issues
to border policy in one “national security” bill. The populist House Group of
20/Tea Party faction behind Speaker Mike Johnson thought that divisions between
the two parties over border policy and divisions among the Democrats over
Israel-Gaza would make passing a bill impossible.
That position threatened
to undo the entire system of international security established after World War
Two. In the case of Ukraine failure to prevent Russia from steamrolling it
would recall the horrors of the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars of the
20th Century. In the Middle East lack of support for Israel might undermine the
West’s most reliable ally in the region and risk a wider regional war.
Regarding the border, they figured even Senate Republicans could never agree on
a deal with Democrats that gave enough to both sides.
But in early February when
Senate Republicans led by James Langford (Oklahoma) brokered a deal with
Democrats including all three issues, Trump and the Group of 20 were stunned. Herr Trump instructed his minions
in Congress to oppose the package arguing it was still a bad bill. In short
order Mike Johnson announced that the bi-partisan bill would be dead on arrival
at the House. Then Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who’d worked hard
to craft the bill, announced that he didn’t have enough votes to prevent a
Republican filibuster.
The legislation offered
more restriction and control at the border than ever before, but Democrats have
since been shouting to the high heavens that Trump wants to demonstrate that
Biden can’t get anything done on the issue so he can use it to energize his
white nationalist base in November.
It’s bad enough that
Republicans are willing to stall pragmatic border policy reform, but they’re
simultaneously willing to risk continuing Russan aggression across the vast
European plain that has witnessed the bloodiest wars in history. In the Middle
East the Republican willingness to let aid to Israel lapse is hard to
understand, though the Christian fundamentalists among them are likely secretly
salivating, because the whole mess over there could signal that the War of
Armageddon imminent!
While Biden’s foreign
policy is teetering under pressure from the far right, in the Middle East he is
also being pressured from his left anti-imperialist populist base in the
Democratic Party. The Hamas attacks on people reveling at a concert on October
7 was a monstrous crime against humanity. However, the Israeli military
campaign to “eliminate Hamas” defies the laws of just war and what is
considered a proportionate response.
By December 60 Congressional
Democrats were calling for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all
Israeli hostages and Palestinians arbitrarily detained by Israel.
As the presidential
primary season unfolded the Michigan contest offered an early challenge to Biden’s
Middle East policy. The state is home to the largest Arab American population,
by sheer numbers and more importantly, by percentage of state population, in
the country. Biden won Michigan by only 154,000 votes in 2020. Some observers
estimated that the Arab and larger Muslim vote may have brought him the margin
for victory.
Before the Michigan primary Rashida Tlaib, the Palestinian American
congresswoman from Dearborn led the movement urging Michigan Democrats to vote
uncommitted in the primary to send a message to Biden regarding his Gaza
policy.
It's hard to know what
these alienated voters will do in November, but the answer to that question
keeps the Democratic establishment up at night. Would Arab and other
Muslim voters, and young
voters, populations without as much experience with politics
in America’s formal
processes actually risk not voting in November and handing the election to the
neo-fascist Trump? Surely, they must know that in a second Trump term the fate
of Palestinians in the occupied territories as well as Arabs, Muslims,
immigrants and brown people in the US will be much worse than if Biden were
re-elected. Likewise, can the young, who all the data shows trend left, think
another Trump term will favor them?
Would brown immigrants, POC
in general and the young rather blow things up in exasperation or are they just
playing a shrewd hand in the war of position inside the Democratic Party to
leverage their steadily growing power. These demographics might well vote for
Biden in November and come out of the election with yet more power in ways
reflecting their growing percentages in the population. And between now and
November,
